UFC 231 – Max Holloway vs. Brian Ortega – Betting Predictions

From a fan’s perspective, UFC 231 is a fantastic event. Concerning betting opportunities, I am feeling lukewarm. But here are my hints of the fights that I’m trying to play. Gilbert Burns vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Decorated jiu-jitsu champion and second degree black belt, Gilbert Burns, has been operating on his striking in recent decades. Training beneath famed Dutch kickboxer, Henri Hooft, Burns is currently comfortable wherever the fight takes place.
With his newfound striking skills, Burns scored strong knockout victories over Jason Saggo and Dan Moret. Regrettably, preferring to bang with Dan Hooker was devastating and Burns was violently finished in his last struggle. I dropped money believing Burns would grapple — oh well!
Even though a good striker, Burns takes risks defensively and heaps on his shots. Dan Hooker is the kind of fighter that can capitalize on defensive lapses — however I am not sure Olivier Aubin-Mercier is.
Coming out of a judo history, Aubin-Mercier is immensely strong from the clinch and hefty from top position. While he is much more proficient on the feet than he used to be, Aubin-Mercier still lacks the fluidity of someone that is a natural striker. He’s light on his toes, out and in with his motion and slightly tentative — but is accurate when he fires.
While Aubin-Mercier is a jiu-jitsu brown belt, so I doubt he would like to go to the mat with Burns. Even the muscle-bound human blanket, Michel Prazeres, refused to dive into the protector of Gilbert Burns — which speaks volumes.
In his last fight, Aubin-Mercier looked a step behind in the scrambles from Alexander Hernandez and I’d expect a master of body manipulation like Gilbert Burns to dominate the mat too (although I wish there was more footage of Burns fighting his back to make a better assessment).
I think the striking trades will be competitive, but I give Burns a small edge. Stylistically, this seems catchy for Aubin-Mercier and that I can’t predict his approach. Maybe the Canadian will attempt to control his opponent against the fence, but without shooting takedowns?
I do believe Aubin-Mercier is the better athlete and has the superior cardio. However, I’ll take my chances with Gilbert Burns as a +120 underdog as I think he must be a slight favorite.
Elias Theodorou vs. Eryk Anders
In a middleweight showdown between two fighters with contrasting designs (and characters ), Eryk Anders takes on Elias Theodorou.
A fantastic athletic, Anders is explosive yet has good cardio. Struggling out of the southpaw stance, Anders packs enormous electricity in his left hand but in my opinion, goes head hunting a little too much. In his final bout, Thiago Santos was well prepared for the primary weapon of Anders — which limited his offensive victory.

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